Nidoking (nidoking) wrote,

Getting sick would be bad right about now

There weren't enough people for Bridge today, so I considered the slam from yesterday a bit more. It occurred to me that my recommended line of giving up an early diamond would fail if the clubs were 4-1, since the opponent who took the ace of diamonds might give his partner a club ruff. But the alternative is to pull trump and find the queen of hearts - if clubs are 4-1, he doesn't have enough board entries to set up the clubs, and if they're 3-2, the diamond play works. That's about a 50% line, whereas the diamond only fails if the opponent with four clubs also has the ace of diamonds - otherwise, there's no way to cross to the other hand for the ruff, and Ken has time to ruff the diamond and pull trump. The 3-2 club split is already a 67% chance, and the ace of diamonds has a greater than 50% chance of being in the hand with the short clubs, because there are 12 non-clubs in that hand versus 9 in the other. I make it a nearly 82% chance of success.

No major breakthroughs at work - just a lot of confusion for now. I've moved on from the problem I was working on to look at another for now. I didn't get much time to work on it, though. Hopefully, I'll find something meaningful tomorrow.

I think I was coming down with a cough this afternoon, but it seems to have gone away. It's going around at work, so I hope I haven't caught it myself. I guess I'll find out.

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